If you’re an F1 fan like me, you’ll know that as tyres heat up, the tyre pressure increases.
The heat and pressure in Melbourne’s property market last peaked around Cup Day 2021. As soon as the last lockdown ended, the pressure and temperature started to ease.
It was a slow leak at first, but then we saw the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in Australia’s history. Thirteen rate hikes—like little slashes in a tyre—saw the market deflate quickly. 2023 and 2024 were flat.
The strange thing is that other capital cities kicked into turbocharge while we limped to the pit lane.
Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth have all seen roughly 70% price growth since COVID. Melbourne has seen 8%.
But finally, the tables are turning.
Melbourne has a fresh set of Pirelli rubber, and we’ve hit the lead. We’ve had five consecutive months of price growth, and for the first time in ages, we’re outshining all the other capital cities.
Part of our undervaluation came from some hefty property taxes, including land tax, which made investors a bit wary of Victoria. But now, we’re seeing a wave of interstate investors and buyers’ advocates flooding into Melbourne, hunting for great value.
Inner-city Melbourne has already seen 3.5% price growth in the last quarter (according to REA)—that’s nearly a $100,000 jump in median prices in suburbs like Armadale or Malvern.
In other (hypothetical) words, a house that cost $2,700,000 in March is now $2,800,000. The same house could cost you $3,000,000 by Christmas if this trend continues.
No wonder there is more urgency with buyers now.
And why wouldn’t it continue? With yesterday’s low inflation numbers, there’s a whopping 94% chance of a rate cut in August, with the market pricing in 3.7 rate cuts by early next year (at the time of writing).
All signs point to a property boom—or at the very least, some solid price growth—on the horizon.
At Jellis Craig, our clearance rates have been nothing short of spectacular, hitting 80% last week and 88% the week before at a solid volume of 90+ auctions.
We’re seeing out-of-the-box results reminiscent of the boom years of 2017 and 2021, with some properties selling far beyond the vendor’s wildest dreams.
Plus, our off-market sales have skyrocketed—we’ve already sold more properties off-market in the last five months than we did in all of 2023 and 2024 combined.
This is a clear signal of buyer confidence and urgency, matched with insufficient supply.
As we head into the winter slowdown, with few new listings over the coming weeks, it’s the perfect time to take a breath and get ready for a bustling spring.
So, if you’re thinking of buying or upgrading, now’s the time to get in while the value is still on your side.
Potential vendors can have the confidence that their home should sell well. But just be prepared for a bit more competition when you’re buying—your dream home might just be someone else’s dream too!
Feature property: 13 Hakatere Street, Northcote
David Sciola 